DAILY HAMPSHIRE GAZETTE, OCTOBER 23, 2008
Will the sky fall if Question 1 passes?
The mayors of the two cities in Hampshire County, Clare Higgins of Northampton and Michael Tautznik of Easthampton, are walking this tightrope: how to have an honest conversation about a ballot measure many agree would dramatically alter the cities they govern.
"We're afraid to scare the living daylights out of people," said Tautznik.
Both Tautznik and Higgins say they want people to know what's a stake if the measure is approved, but at the same time they don't want to sound like Chicken Little. Or the boy who cried wolf. (Pick your cliche.)
Question 1 is the binding ballot initiative asking voters if they want to repeal the state income tax. Opponents of the measure use words like devastating, catastrophic, calamitous and reckless to describe the consequences if voters adopt it Nov. 4.
Its proponents say there is too much waste in state government. They want to force efficiency by cutting its budget and letting its residents keep their hard-earned money.
Higgins and Tautznik can be counted among the vocal opponents of Question 1. Both have been speaking out against the ballot question, which has community leaders, not to mention city and state employees across the commonwealth, running scared.
But they also say it us difficult to discuss the question in a clear-headed and rational way because the measure seeks to abolish the income tax (it does so in two phases, one that would kick in in January, and the other a year later), but does not follow through to show how the revenue lost would be accommodated.
"There's really no way to react in a specific manner," said Tautznik. "We're guessing. We don't know where the cuts would be."
That said, both mayors have been thinking about the question for several months and offer scenarios that could come to pass if the measure is approved - which they believe is a possibility. A similar measure nearly mustered enough support in 2002, and opponents fear that in a recessionary economy, it might pass this time.
"I don't know very many people who on the face of it would say no to a reduction in taxes," said Tautznik.
"People are hurting, so that idea that you can get some money back - you don't get to vote on your oil bill or your propane bill or your mortgage - is attractive," said Higgins.
But these mayors say the effects of the measure would be unprecedented, and would mean, in the words of Tautznik, a "sea change" in the services offered to the public.
"We've never faced this before," said Higgins. "We'll prioritize protecting kids and public safety, but there's no way we can keep the same level of services, just by the numbers."
In Northampton, Higgins estimates the city could lose $9.5 million out of the $16 million in state aid the city receives, which represents more than 10 percent of the city's total operating budget of $72 million.
Some budget areas are off-limits for cutting, including the city's debt payments, its veterans benefits and certain jobs that are required by law (city clerk, tax collector, health agent, building inspector, to name a few). That leaves four general areas from which cuts can be made: schools, public safety, public works and recreation (including libraries).
To offer a sense of scope and illustrate the magnitude, Higgins recites a litany of entire departments the city could cut, but still not make up the expected gap.
"If I got rid of police, dispatch and fire, I wouldn't make it," she said. "We're talking about huge building blocks."
Tautznik is estimating Easthampton could lose from $4 million to $8 million from budget of $33 million, which works out to 12 to 24 percent.
The mayor hasn't worked out specific parts of the budget would have to be excised, saying he wants to see exactly how the state would mete out the cuts. But in general, departments deemed non-essential - meaning they are not required by city charter or state statute - could be eliminated. This could mean losing the parks and recreation department and the libraries, and big reductions in schools.
"We'd have to cut from everywhere. There wouldn't be a place off limits, and we'd have to eliminate a lot of little budgets," he said. "The depth of the cuts that would be required are just unimaginable."
So, has this "unimaginable" situation come to pass in other states? Indeed it has - nine states have no income tax, including our neighbor, New Hampshire. Alaska and Wyoming make up the revenue loss through their natural resources (oil and minerals) and two, Florida and Nevada, rely on tourism or gambling income. Others, such as New Hampshire, have high property taxes.
Not only would the property tax increase be a difficult option in this state because of the limitations imposed by Proposition 2½, it is not, in the eyes of many, an advisable route.
"That's not fair at all," said Tautznik. "Property tax is the most regressive tax there is."
Higgins says if the initiative passes, her first step would be to go back to collective bargaining with city employee unions to see if wages could be renegotiated. The city would have to issue layoff notices, and then she and her financial team would go through the city budget to start cutting. She would also speak with to residents about seeking an override to Proposition 2½.
With the economy tanking, Question 1 proponents may have the perfect climate for the measure to pass.
So, if Question 1 passes, will the sky fall?
One recent study suggested that with an increase in sales tax and increases in property taxes, the consequences would not be "doomsday." We probably all don't agree on what constitutes doomsday, but I'd say the jury's still out on the question of whether the wolf is at the door.
And it's possible we won't know for sure until it's too late.
Laurie Loisel is the Gazette's city editor and can be reached at lloisel@gazettenet.com.
